For Ukraine, the country at the heart of this geopolitical maneuvering, the US strategy is a double-edged sword, offering both a glimmer of hope and a cause for deep concern.
The glimmer of hope is that the US is actively trying to create a pathway to peace. By using powerful economic incentives to bring Russia to the negotiating table, Washington is taking a proactive role that could potentially lead to an end to the devastating conflict.
The cause for concern is the nature of the incentives. Easing sanctions on Russia’s energy sector and allowing companies like Exxon Mobil to return could ultimately strengthen the Russian economy, giving it more resources to sustain its military in the long run if a peace deal fails to hold.
Kyiv is therefore in a delicate position. It needs the US to broker peace, but it must also be wary of any deal that rebuilds the economic power of its adversary. The success of the US strategy, from Ukraine’s perspective, will depend entirely on the strength and permanence of any resulting peace agreement.