Nvidia has reached a $5.05 trillion peak, a valuation so high it’s reshaping the global economy. The “boom” camp is admiring the view, seeing a new horizon. The “bust” camp, however, is warning that the drop from this height could be deadly.
The “boom” argument is that this is a new plateau, not a peak. The $1 trillion climb in just three months is just the beginning. The ground is solid, supported by a $500 billion order book, a $100 billion OpenAI deal, and partnerships with Uber, Nokia, and the US government.
This perspective, supported by President Trump, is that Nvidia is the new foundation of the global economy.
The “bust” argument, however, comes from the world’s financial sherpas. The Bank of England and the IMF have issued formal warnings about an AI bubble, seeing this as a treacherous, speculative peak.
They point to the “circular” nature of the $100 billion OpenAI deal as a sign of thin air. Their biggest fear is the avalanche risk: analysts report “nearly all AI pilot programs in businesses fail.” If the corporate world can’t make AI pay, the demand will vanish, and the $5T valuation will lead to a catastrophic fall.